If it’s time for you to declare your keepers for next year, this guideline should help you.
AFC East Buffalo: Marshawn Lynch is an obvious choice; he had a tremendous rookie season, and should only get better. Trent Edwards might be a value keeper; i.e. if you can keep him for a very late draft pick, he might be worthwhile. No one else jumps out, unless you’re inclined to believe that Lee Evans is likely to have a real bounceback season.
Miami: 1-15 teams tend not to have many good keepers, but Ronnie Brown was having a career year before getting hurt. ACL tears usually take two full years to heal, but even at 80%, Brown is a worthwhile starter, and should be kept . Ted Ginn may be a value keeper, especially if your league happens to count return yardage.
New England: Lots of worthwhile keepers here: Tom Brady and Randy Moss are obvious. And while Wes Welker is probably ripe for decline, he still might be worth hanging onto. Laurence Maroney should have a big improvement in 2008. The Patriot defense should remain a strong unit, and if you don’t have other good options, it might be worth keeping them.
New York Jets: Kellen Clemens is a nice value keeper; he’ll be a very good QB before too long. Jerricho Cotchery has emerged as the team’s #1 receiver, and might also be a decent value keep.
AFC North Baltimore: We expected more of Willis McGahee in his first year in Baltimore, and maybe if the Ravens get some consistency in the passing game, we’ll get it next year. Still, you can’t throw him back in the draft pool without other good options on your roster. Troy Smith might have some spec value, especially if they don’t bring anyone else in.
Cincinnati: This team could have some major changes in the offseason; rumors are already abounding that Chad Johnson might get moved, and Carson Palmer isn’t happy with the team’s coaching staff. However, for now, Johnson, Palmer and TJ Houshmandzadeh are all excellent picks for next year. Rudi Johnson, however, might already be entering his decline years.
Cleveland: Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow are no-brainer keepers. Jamal Lewis is a free agent but will probably come back, and seemed to thrive this year. We’re not convinced that he’s all the way back, but you could do worse for a keeper. Much depends on the status of Derek Anderson; he’s a restricted free agent and may or may not be back. He’ll be a well-paid starter somewhere, but his value is higher in Cleveland’s high-octane offense. If Anderson departs, Brady Quinn sees his value skyrocket.
Pittsburgh: Ben Roethlisberger emerged as a top-shelf fantasy QB this year, and is worth a keeper slot. Willie Parker, too, as long as his injury isn’t too serious. Santonio Holmes became the team’s #1 receiver this year, and should have a big 2008, and is well worth hanging onto. The defense is also a potential keep, as they’re perennially good, though we generally eschew keeping a defense unless you’re short on good options.
AFC South Houston: Andre Johnson is the only obvious choice here. The Texans need an overhaul at running back, and no other receiver or QB is worth keeping.
Indianapolis: Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne, and Joseph Addai are easy calls. Marvin Harrison is not; there were rumblings that his injury might linger for the rest of his career. As it is, he’s apparently entered his decline phase, and it may be a steep one. Dallas Clark is a free agent, and might be worth keeping if he stays, but his value goes down if he signs with another team.
Tennessee: Tough call here: the receivers are terrible, Vince Young regressed tremendously this year, and they can’t seem to decide on a running back, although LenDale White looked pretty good for most of the year. White’s the only potential keeper for now, unless you’re inclined to believe that Young will have a jump in his development.
AFC West Denver: Brandon Marshall emerged as a star at wide receiver, and should absolutely be kept. Jay Cutler continues to progress, and is also worth hanging onto. As usual, Mike Shanahan has managed to cloud the RB situation: it looked like Travis Henry’s job, but Selvin Young got enough carries, and looked good enough that there’s a real question as to what’s going to happen next year. We’d guess it’s still Henry’s job, but we’re not confident enough that we’d recommend him real highly.
Kansas City: Dwayne Bowe looks like a stud at receiver, and should only get better, so he’s worth keeping. Larry Johnson’s injury isn’t a great omen after his huge 2005 and 2006 workloads, but you’ve got to hang onto him if you have him.
Oakland: JaMarcus Russell and Michael Bush may be value keepers. Justin Fargas might be worth keeping, but there’s a decent chance that he’s moving on as a free agent.
San Diego: Easy call here: LaDainian Tomlinson and Antonio Gates, and that’s about it, unless you’re desperate, and want to keep the defense or Philip Rivers.
NFC East Dallas: Plenty of keeps here: Tony Romo and Terrell Owens are no-brainers. Marion Barber is too; his numbers are good, but will get better next year if Julius Jones departs as a free agent. Jason Witten is a definite keep in TE leagues, and maybe even in TE-optional leagues. Patrick Crayton may be a value keep, and even Jones might have value if he lands on a team that will give him 300+ carries.
New York Giants: Brandon Jacobs and Plax Burress are good keepers. As for Eli Manning, it’s becoming clear that he is what he is; a talented but wildly inconsistent QB. He probably doesn’t have much keeper value unless you are somehow able to keep him for a really low draft pick.
Philadelphia: There’s some question where Donovan McNabb will be next year. Wherever it may be, he’s worth keeping, but if Kevin Kolb takes over the offense, he has some serious potential as a long-term keeper. Brian Westbrook, of course, is obvious, and Kevin Curtis might be worth keeping if you don’t have other good options.
Washington: Clinton Portis, for sure, and Chris Cooley in TE leagues. That’s pretty much it unless you’re inclined to buy into Santana Moss having a resurgence.
NFC North Chicago: Nothing here unless your league counts individual return yards and TDs, in which case Devin Hester is certainly worth hanging onto. Maybe Bernard Berrian is worth keeping, since he could only benefit from some consistent QB play next year.
Detroit: Calvin Johnson and Roy Williams are obvious keeps here; Johnson has some tremendous long-term potential. The entire running attack is likely to be overhauled, so forget any of their running backs. It looks the magic has run out of Jon Kitna’s wand, so pass on him.
Green Bay: It’s too soon to tell whether Brett Favre will be back, but if he is, he’s obviously a great keeper. If not, Aaron Rodgers showed some potential this year and might fare quite well. Ryan Grant emerged as the running back they desperately needed, and should continue to be valuable, while Greg Jennings and Donald Driver rank among the best receiving tandems in the NFL, and both are worth hanging onto, though Jennings has a bit more value.
Minnesota: They’ve got a kid named Adrian Peterson who’s pretty good. Maybe you’ve heard of him.
NFC South Atlanta: Roddy White stepped forward as a legitimate fantasy starter this year, despite a revolving door at QB, and should get better. Nothing else here worthwhile, though.
Carolina: Steve Smith is obviously worth keeping, and DeAngelo Williams looked pretty good toward the end of the year, and might be ready to take the job all to himself next year, and might be a value keep. We’re not ready to buy into Matt Moore just yet, but he’s young and didn’t totally embarrass himself, so if you’re inclined to keep him for cheap, you could do worse.
New Orleans: Drew Brees and Marques Colston are near the top of their respective positions, and are obvious keeps. Reggie Bush should bounce back from his injury quite well next year, too, and is well worth hanging onto.
Tampa Bay: It will be interesting to see what the Bucs do at running back. Earnest Graham played extremely well; much better than Cadillac Williams ever did except for the first half of Williams’ rookie season. Williams might get moved, but if he doesn’t, they may stick with a platoon situation in which neither Graham nor Williams would have a lot of value.
NFC West Arizona: Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald are top-notch wide receivers and fine players around which to build a team. Edgerrin James isn’t what he was back in Indy, but he’s still a durable back who puts up numbers, and after this year, that’s got value. He’s worth a keep, too. However, the QB situation bears watching. Matt Leinart’s stock is way down after he got hurt this year and Kurt Warner looked excellent in his absence. It’s anyone’s guess what the Cardinals will do at QB next year.
San Francisco: Their offense revolves around Frank Gore, and not surprisingly, he’s the only real keeper on the roster, though Alex Smith may be a value keep if you’ve got a spot.
Seattle: Matt Hasselbeck is the best keeper here, as Shaun Alexander looks to be clearly in decline, Deion Branch is too fragile to be trusted and Bobby Engram will probably go back to his #3 WR role next year.
St. Louis: Steven Jackson will be a top pick next year, so he’s a sure keeper, and Torry Holt remains a top wide receiver. Marc Bulger is a tougher call; he’s had too many injuries to really be trusted, but when healthy, he’s put up some fine numbers. Caveat emptor.
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