Brady Goes Down in Week 1

When things go bad, they sure go bad in a hurry, don’t they?  From a perfect regular season to one of the most disappointing Super Bowl losses in history, and now Tom Brady, a player who would probably be enshrined in Canton if he never played another down in the NFL, has a serious knee injury.  The early word is that it’s a torn ACL and Brady is done for the year.  Not surprisingly, the Patriots haven’t commented as of this writing.

We’ll proceed on the assumption that Brady is done for the season, since that’s where all the evidence is pointing right now.  How does this affect the Patriots?  The short answer is: badly.  There is simply no way for the Patriots to duplicate the combination of accuracy and arm strength that allows Brady to get the ball downfield like he does.  And as much as the term is overused: leadership.  It’s no coincidence that Randy Moss has been on his best behavior in New England.  Maybe it’s due to Bill Belichick, maybe it’s the winning atmosphere, but some part of it must be Brady keeping Moss in line and keeping him happy.   

The Patriots’ passing attack will surely suffer across the board.  It’s not so much a question of which Patriot receivers will be hurt, as which will be hurt the least.  Moss will probably see the smallest falloff in his numbers, simply because he’s so good at going up and getting those jump balls downfield, and that’s not a terribly difficult throw for a QB to make.  It’s not impossible that Moss will get one of those a game.  Moreover, as New England’s best receiver, one assumes Matt Cassel (or whoever the answer is at QB, more on that below) will be looking for him as much as possible.  Similarly, Wes Welker will probably see a falloff, but not a huge one.  Welker’s precise route running and sure hands make him the sort of security blanket a backup QB would like.  However, if you were putting any stock in New England’s third and fourth receivers as valuable fantasy contributors, you can probably sell that now.  Similarly, Ben Watson (once he gets healthy) probably drops from the ranks of tight ends you can start.  Moss remains a must-start every week, unless the offense really goes off a cliff, but Welker probably drops from a borderline #1 receiver to a #2 or #3.  He’ll still be worth a start most weeks, but forget about him duplicating last year’s numbers.  The other receivers, though?  Dump ‘em. 

Laurence Maroney would seem to be a candidate for a “buy” recommendation, except that it suddenly looks like he and Sammy Morris are going to platoon (both had 10 carries yesterday).  Maroney’s looking more and more like Ronnie Brown; a talented player who should be a fantasy stud, but one thing or another keeps getting in his way.  Until this shakes out, we can’t upgrade him.  However, the Patriots are likely to become a more run-heavy offense than they once were, and Morris is certainly worth a pickup now, especially if it looks like he’s going to be getting lots of carries. 

Who’s going to be under center?  Right now, it looks like Matt Cassel, but the Patriots are apparently bringing in Chris Simms and Tim Rattay for workouts.  And one wonders if they might not also try calling up the recently retired Daunte Culpepper.  Assume it’s Cassel’s job for the next couple weeks, but he’s far from entrenched.  They’ll probably add a veteran sooner than later (2008 third round pick Kevin O’Connell is the only other QB on the roster at present), and if Cassel plays poorly, he might get benched.  Cassel was completely outplayed in the preseason by Matt Gutierrez, but the Patriots kept him, and cut Gutierrez, anyway.  He wasn’t bad yesterday, but take away that 51 yard pass to Moss and his numbers are pretty weak, and the Chiefs’ defense isn’t exactly the ’85 Bears or ’00 Ravens. 

One other loser here: the Patriots defense.  You have to assume that Cassel (or whoever) is going to turn the ball over more often than the hyper-accurate Brady.  That means shorter fields to defense and probably more points allowed.  They’re still a starting unit, but they definitely go down a tick.