 Warner played great last year, can he hold onto the job in 2008? Here’s a look at some training camp battles, and the likely outcome. Arizona QB – Matt Leinart vs. Kurt Warner Last year, the Cardinals made the bizarre decision to alternate these two, and then Matt Leinart made the point moot by suffering a season-ending injury. Kurt Warner looked tremendous in relief of Leinart (3417 yards, 27 TD) and showed that even at age 36, he still had it. Right now, Leinart is the favorite going into camp, given that the Cardinals are thinking long-term, but Warner has shown he can get the job done. Whoever wins the job will be at worst a quality backup and maybe a decent starter. Baltimore QB – Kyle Boller vs. Troy Smith vs. Joe Flacco Obviously, Flacco’s the long-term QB here, but for 2008, we’d bet on him sitting the bench. Flacco faced subpar competition in college (he played at I-AA Delaware), so the adjustment to the pro game might be a bit tougher for him than someone who played for a football powerhouse. Smith looked very good in limited time, but the early word is that it’s Boller vs. Flacco, and if that’s the case, Boller will likely enter the season with the job. It’s worth noting that the Ravens are interested in Brett Favre, and his pickup would obviously change this situation dramatically.
Carolina RB – Jonathan Stewart vs. DeAngelo Williams For the last two years, Williams was the better man in the Carolina backfield, but the coaching staff’s bizarre infatuation with the mediocre DeShaun Foster kept Williams down. Now, he gets his chance…only to see the team draft Jonathan Stewart high in the draft. Stewart has a world of talent, and would have been long gone by the Panthers’ pick had there not been some concerns about his injured toe. It appears that toe is in good shape, and thus Williams’ status as starter is not. Williams will probably begin the year as the starter, but we’d be surprised if Stewart isn’t starting by week 6. Chicago RB – Matt Forte vs. Kevin Jones Jones will start camp on the PUP list, so Forte will get every chance to win the job early on. This would likely be a situation with a defined starter and backup, since these guys have pretty similar skills. Both will be new to the offense, and Jones isn’t great at blitz pickup, so the two usual advantages a veteran runner has over a rookie don’t apply here. Bet on Forte winning this job. Denver RB – Michael Pittman vs. Selvin Young vs. Andre Hall We could subtitle this one “Mike Shanahan vs. Fantasy Owners”. Look, at this point, you know what you’re getting from the Broncos: a backfield by committee, whether you want it or not. Even last year, when they supposedly found their bell cow running back in Travis Henry, it devolved into a BBC. We’d prefer to stay away from the whole thing, but if you must pick one, Young probably makes the most sense, although in point-per-reception leagues, Pittman might have more value. Detroit RB – Tatum Bell vs. Kevin Smith This situation is more likely to be a timeshare, since Bell has the home-run speed Smith lacks, and Smith is bigger and stronger than Bell. That said, it’s amazing to us that Bell is back in Detroit, after grumbling constantly about his playing time last year, and one wonders if the coaching staff hasn’t had their fill of his act. The fact that they traded up in the draft to get Smith might also give us a hint that they favor him. Houston RB – Ahman Green vs. Chris Brown vs. Steve Slaton Chris Brown is a guy we’ve always liked, but injuries have sabotaged his career. When he’s played, he’s almost always been effective. Green is 31, and well into his decline phase. With neither sporting a really positive track record of health, the door is open for third round pick Steve Slaton. Slaton is undersized, and might be used more as a third down back, but with neither Brown nor Green able to be counted upon, a late choice of Slaton could reap big rewards. Miami QB – Josh McCown vs. John Beck vs. Chad Henne The short answer is that, for fantasy purposes, it really doesn’t matter who wins this job, since none of them are likely to be good options. But, we can’t just leave it there. McCown has shown flashes of being a guy who can produce big numbers, but has never done it consistently. The real fight is for the long-term job, and that will be between Beck and Henne. Bill Parcells and Co. picked Henne in this year’s draft, so you have to assume they’ll give him every chance to win the job down the road, but for this year, Henne will probably sit the bench, like most rookie QBs. Miami RB – Ronnie Brown vs. Ricky Williams The Dolphins are supposedly counting on Williams to carry a pretty significant load this year. That’s a tall order for a guy who’s played 13 NFL games in 4 years. However, the word from camp is that he looks great so far. Brown, meanwhile, is coming off an ACL tear, so it would make sense not to give him a ton of carries, given the poor record of running backs the year after a major knee injury. With a young offensive line, and perhaps a young QB, the Dolphins figure to run the ball a lot, so both these guys could be useful, but Brown’s the better bet for a big season. New Orleans WR – Lance Moore vs. David Patten vs. Robert Meachem vs. Devery Henderson This is the rare #2 WR spot that could be useful. Even though the Saints have plenty of weapons in the passing game as is (Marques Colston, Reggie Bush, Jeremy Shockey), this team passes the ball a ton, and the #2 receiver can be useful. Moore is the putative starter, and has quickness and some deep speed that complement Colston well. Meachem has the most talent of the group, and will be eager to prove he was worth a first round pick. Patten will likely be the #3 receiver; the team likes him there, and it seems to suit him well, but even as a third receiver, he was a useful fantasy player last year. Henderson was a bust last year, though the team had high hopes for him. If you want to swing for the fences, take Meachem or Henderson. If you want a safe pick, take Patten. If you want something in between, take Moore. Pittsburgh RB – Willie Parker vs. Rashard Mendenhall The Steelers will tell you this isn’t a training camp battle, but don’t believe it. The Steelers likely feel that Parker is on borrowed time, with his diminutive frame and declining effectiveness. This year, look for Mendenhall to vulture the goalline carries, and Parker to carry the load otherwise. San Francisco QB – Alex Smith vs. Shaun Hill Smith, the Niners’ QB of the future, has fallen out of favor, as his development has plateaued. Hill played well in relief of Smith last year, but he’s a career journeyman, and it’s possible, even likely, that he just hit a hot streak in his three game trial. In any case, there’s not much to be gained from picking either of these guys. Seattle RB – Julius Jones vs. Maurice Morris vs. TJ Duckett Jones is the early favorite here, but his career has shown us that he’s entirely capable of losing a perfectly good starting job. The same can be said for Duckett, come to think of it. Morris, meanwhile, is a career backup, but one who has shown promise. More than likely, we’ll see Jones carry the bulk of the load, with Morris backing him up and Duckett vulturing some goalline TDs. Tampa Bay RB – Earnest Graham vs. Cadillac Williams vs. Warrick Dunn The Bucs announced earlier this week that they would like to split time between Graham and Dunn to start the year. We’re not buying that for a moment. Dunn has good hands, but as a runner, he’s completely washed up, a point that’s going to become clear to Jon Gruden pretty quickly. Williams will start camp on the PUP list, and that may carry into the season. Right now, we like Graham as the starter by attrition.
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