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| Wide Receivers - 3 Year Breakout - A History Lesson |
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| Written by Jeffrey Kamys | |||||
| Friday, 18 July 2008 | |||||
We continue to post this article in the football Insider each year since it is always a relevant topic. Last years crop of 3rd year WR's was a bit thin, but Braylon Edwards did post monster numbers with nearly 1300 yards receiving and 16 TD's.
In baseball we have the age of 27, the age at which a player will begin his so called golden years. In football we have the "3 Year Breakout" when it comes to wide receivers. In this article we will take a trip back and look at the 3 year breakout to see how it has impacted some of today's best players.
First off, why does a 3 year breakout make sense? Take this analogy for starters: Remember when you were a freshman in high school and you didn't know your way around?... It wasn't like 8th grade when you were the leader of the school - you were once again a nobody. Well, then you became a sophomore and you started feeling more comfortable but no one had any real confidence in you and you most likely didn't have much confidence in yourself either. But then came your junior year and things started to fall into place. You were looked at as running the block and you were getting ready to take over for the seniors. That, in essence, is very similar to why a wide receiver has his big breakout season in year 3. Let's look at it more closely with a past year 3 breakout player Eric Moulds... Year 1: Eric Moulds comes in from Mississippi State where he was king of the block. Moulds is drafted by the Bills who look at him as the next Andre Reed. Reed, however, is not quite yet ready to relent and he claims he can still do the job. Reed is probably not going to be that helpful to Moulds when he gets there either; after all, Reed looks at Moulds like a competitor. It's typical -- Moulds comes in with his new contract and other players resent him for it. Additionally, there's the pressure of the coach seeing you drop one or two passes and then you are gone, since you have not earned the right to screw up like veterans have. Remember, this is all about proving your worth at this stage.
Year 2: Moulds starts to run the routes a little bit better and the coach finally gets some confidence in him, although the QB still isn't sure because he hasn't played with him that much. At this point Reed sees that Moulds has earned his place and eventually starts sharing some of the knowledge. Reed no longer resents Moulds - now Reed can resent the other new rookies that the Bills have drafted. And once again Moulds at this point is past the prove-it-to-me stage and is now part of the team. Year 2 is huge because it is when a player begins to develop the confidence level to really make a difference in year 3.
Year 3: Moulds finally figures out what it takes to excel at the pro level and he has worked out all offseason. His body is conditioned for the beating he will take and the guy he is trying to replace is now 2 years older. Unless that guy is Jerry Rice, that's 2 years less on a career that won't last too deep into his 30's. Moulds also knows the plays, he knows the coaches, he knows who he can trust in the organization and who he can go to if he has questions. Moulds at this level has also developed the confidence in his game and the QB's start to develop the confidence in him as well. Now that you have heard the why, let's look at the who of players that have broken out in their third years...
Braylon Edwards: 2007 Breakout year - Career highs in receptions, TD's and yardage.
Roy Williams: 2006 Breakout year - Career highs in receptions and yardage. Posted 16 yards per catch on 82 receptions.
Lee Evans: 2006 Breakout year - Career highs in receptions and yardage.
Bernard Berrian: 2006 Breakout year - Posted career highs in TD's, receptions and yardage.
Javon Walker: 2004 Breakout year - Nearly doubled his receiving yardage from the 2003 season. He set career highs in yardage, receptions and TD's.
Ashley Lelie: 2004 Breakout year - Nearly 500 more yards receiving and 5 more TD's than the prior year.
Ronald Curry: 2004 Breakout year - Posted over 600 more yards and 6 TD's than the prior year.
Chris Chambers: 2003 Breakout year - He may have had a solid year 1, but in year 3 he posted even better numbers with 11 receiving TD's
Chad Johnson: 2003 Breakout year - He may have had a breakout in year 2, but in year 3 he posted even better numbers. 21 catches more and he doubled his TD production from the prior year
Reggie Wayne: 2003 Breakout year - He posted career highs in yardage, TD's and receptions
Plaxico Burress: 2002 Breakout year - He may have had a breakout in year 2, but in year 3 he posted even better numbers. 12 catches and nearly 325 more yards than the previous year
Laveranues Coles: 2002 Breakout year - 30 catches more than the previous year and nearly 400 more yards
Brian Finneran: 2002 Breakout year - 33 more catches, 340+ yards and 3 TD's more than the previous year
Tai Streets: 2002 Breakout year - 44 catches, 4 TD's and 400+ yards more than the previous year
Jerry Porter: 2002 Breakout year - 32 catches, 9 TD's and nearly 500 yards more than the previous year
Marty Booker: 2001 Breakout year - 53 catches, 6 TD's and 500+ yards more than the previous year
David Boston: 2001 Breakout year - OK, he may have had a breakout in year 2, but in year 3 he posted even better numbers. 27 catches and nearly 500 more yards than the previous year
Kevin Johnson: 2001 Breakout year - Saw career highs in catches, yards and TD's. 27 catches, 400+ yards and 9 TD's more than the previous year
Peerless Price: 2001 Breakout year - Saw career highs across the board. 4 more TD's than the previous year
Donald Hayes: 2000 Breakout year - nearly 750 yards and 55 more catches than the previous year
Albert Connell: 1999 Breakout year - nearly 650 yards and 34 more catches than the previous year. A career high of 7 TD's
Keith Poole: 1999 Breakout year - nearly 300 yards receiving more than the previous year and a career high of 6 TD's
Ike Hilliard: 1999 Breakout year - 21 catches and nearly 300 more yards than the previous season, he came within 4 yards of hitting the 1000 yard receiving mark
Bobby Engram: 1998 Breakout year - 600 yards and 3 TD's more than previous year
Keyshawn Johnson: 1998 Breakout year - Once again had fine seasons in years 1 or 2 but breakout year had 5 more TD's than previous year
Eric Moulds: 1998 Breakout year - 38 more receptions, 1000 more yards and 9 more TD's than previous year
Mushin Muhammad: 1998 Breakout year - 41 more catches, 600 more yards and 6 TD's more than previous year
Terrell Owens: 1998 Breakout year - 6 TD's more than previous year
Antonio Freeman: 1997 Breakout year - 3 TD's and 300 yards more than previous year
Joey Galloway: 1997 Breakout year - Well, he really had a good rookie year but had 5 more TD's in year 3
Rod Smith: 1997 Breakout year - 900 yards, 54 catches and 10 TD's more than previous year
Derrick Alexander: 1996 Breakout year - 47 catches and 9 TD's better than previous season
Charles Johnson: 1996 Breakout year - 600 yards and 3 TD's more than previous year
Curtis Conway: 1995 Breakout year - 500 more yards and 10 TD's more than previous year
Carl Pickens: 1994 Breakout year - 28 receptions, 500 yards and 5 TD's more than previous year
Willie Davis: 1992 Breakout year - 4 TD's more than previous year
Mark Carrier: 1989 Breakout year - 450 yards more receiving and 4 TD's more than previous season
Cris Carter: 1989 Breakout year - 5 TD's more than previous season
That's a pretty substantial list of players that had year three breakouts. The key is really knowing who is likely to breakout - obviosuly, it doesn't happen to all receivers but it does happen to receivers who are in the proper situations.
In Dr. Stats Fantasy Football Insider we will look at which third year players have the best chance to breakout this season.
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